"Two things strike me: One, they're both very stubborn and, two, they're driven to that by the constituencies to whom they're accountable. Any concession looks like weakness and neither can afford to look weak. Their jobs depend on looking tough rather than compromising." ROY J. LEWICKI Ohio State professor, on NHL lockout.
The Dispatch called on Lewicki to assess the situation. We passed along a copious amount of reading material to Professor Lewicki and wait to see if he could find the key to ending the lockout. After a couple of weeks of immersion and consideration, and more than one interview, the good doctor summed things up thusly:
"One of three things has to happen," he said. "One, both parties are in enough pain to agree to come back to the table. Two, both parties have to respect someone enough to mediate. Three, both parties agree to let a group of eminently smart people sit down and listen to both sides and everyone agrees on findings."
At this point, not one of the three options is a consideration.
"If the rhetoric of September still holds, both parties are dug in and prepared for a long siege," Lewicki said.
The rhetoric of September, when the lockout began on the eve of training camps, still holds. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman recently indicated that mediation or arbitration is for situations when both sides don't understand each other - and that's not the case here.
Bettman and union chief Bob Goodenow understand each other perfectly. Bettman wants "cost certainty," a euphemism for "salary cap." He wants salaries tied to revenues. Goodenow and the union are dead set against any form of a cap. Goodenow this month convened a group of player agents to fill them in and keep his hard line indelibly drawn.
"Unfortunately," Lewicki said, "both have implied there's nothing any neutral party could do. Bettman said it explicitly. Goodenow fundamentally said the same thing. It's about control: Who's going to dictate what the cap looks like? Neither one wants to let anyone else have any influence.
"Two things strike me: One, they're both very stubborn, and, two, they're driven to that by the constituencies to whom they're accountable. Any concession looks like weakness, and neither can afford to look weak. Their jobs depend on looking tough rather than compromising."
Lewicki shed his professorial tone for a second and said, "It's a Mexican standoff."
It won't end, he said, until the sides have reached what Lewicki calls a "mutually hurting stalemate."
"(It's) when both parties have the point of view that they're in more pain without a settlement," he said. "I don't think they're there yet, for a couple of reasons: First, the owners aren't losing as much money (with the league shut down). Secondly, the players have other alternatives, be it playing in Europe or whatever. And it's apparent both sides have prepared for this."
In such a situation, a fourth possibility might develop. This has to do with outside pressure being exerted by those unaffiliated, yet invested, with the league. Lewicki mentioned arena workers, fans and even the Canadian government. Those groups have economic and emotional investments in the NHL.
"Interested third parties can bring leverage" when their pain becomes acute, Lewicki said.
When will the pain become acute?
"I think it will take to the dead of winter, post-Christmas," Lewicki said. "It won't be until people really begin to feel the consequences and are living with the situation in the middle of ice-and-snow season for it to get unstuck."
Lewicki's expertise has been used by companies such as Limited Stores, Siemens, Cardinal Health and Ross Laboratories. Here's a question, then: If he had the NHL and the union to deal with, what would he do?
"If I were the neutral party, I'd try to invite key representatives to some warm, remote island," Lewicki said. "I'd . . . take their credit cards and car keys. And their cell phones."
Why not!

